How serious is the energy cost crisis in New England?

A new study from business and labor organizations warns that failure to expand electricity and natural-gas infrastructure in the six-state region will generate the equivalent of a $5.4 billion tax on employers and homeowners between 2016 and 2020. Such an increase would negate 80 percent of the region’s projected private-sector job growth and drain $16.1 billion from economic output.

The study comes from the New England Coalition for Affordable Energy, which includes AIM. Other organizations include Associated Industries of Vermont, Business & Industry Association of New Hampshire; Brotherhood of Utility Workers Council, UWUA 369; Connecticut Business & Industry Association; Independent Oil Marketers Association of New England; NAIOP Massachusetts; National Federation of Independent Business (CT, MA, ME, RI, VT Chapters); Maine State Chamber of Commerce; and the Retailers Association of Massachusetts.

The economic devastation outlined in the study would be on top of the reported $7.5 billion in energy costs the region has already incurred over the past three winters due to the natural gas pipeline system reaching maximum capacity during winter months to meet both electricity generation and space heating demands.

“Energy issues are almost universally mentioned by members as the number one impediment for expanding in Massachusetts,” said John Regan, Executive Vice President of Government Affairs at AIM.

“This study clearly shows that without action, Massachusetts’ energy costs will go even higher, permanently hurting our competitiveness and resulting in major direct and indirect job losses as consumers are forced to pay higher prices for energy rather than investing that capital here.”

In May of this year, Massachusetts commercial and industrial electric rates paid some of the highest prices in the country for electricity, nearly double North Carolina and even higher than California. While rates in other parts of the country are flat or declining due to available and cheap natural gas, Massachusetts’ rates are increasing.

The study, conducted by Boston consulting firms La Capra Associates and Economic Development Research Group, found that failure to expand the region’s energy infrastructure will lead to a reduction in disposable income that could top $12 billion, and 167,600 jobs lost or not created. These impacts would ramp up from 2016 through 2020, with similar or larger impacts expected beyond that timeframe if infrastructure is not added.

AIM has consistently advocated for more natural gas infrastructure to take advantage of close and abundant natural gas supplies, while at the same time continuing to explore the use of large hydropower and renewables to help with diversification.  The association does not take a position on any individual infrastructure projects or financing mechanisms.

Five New England governors, including Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, pledged in April to work together to help consumers who pay more for electricity than almost anywhere else in the United States. While the costs and political challenges of investments in natural gas pipelines, transmission wires and renewable energy remain formidable, the governors nevertheless acknowledged that solving the energy crisis “is greater than any one state can solve alone.”

“We recognize that each state may support addressing our regional energy challenge in different ways. These efforts must be done in partnership with state legislatures, and respecting the requirements of laws, regulatory proceedings, and opportunities for public participation that are unique to each individual state,” the governors said in a statement.